Monarch Beach commercial real estate outlook: hotel tax, office, industrial, retail and jobs

Does hotel tax matter to Monarch Beach commercial property?

The City of Dana Point reports that its FY26 General Fund revenue budget is $51.5 million, and that its largest annual revenue sources, in order of magnitude, are Transient Occupancy Tax, then property tax, then sales tax.^[1] Those are Dana Point (citywide) figures. They are not Monarch Beach figures, and this page does not split hotel tax by neighborhood.

The same city report says the FY26 budget projects total property tax revenue of $12.3 million and that the amended FY26 budget for sales and use tax totals $6.97 million.^[1] Both are citywide. They show the budget amounts and the order of the revenue sources, and nothing more.

Why it matters: if you are weighing a visitor-facing use near the resort, ask the City of Dana Point planning staff how hotel tax and visitor spending shape their view of coastal commercial land, and compare the answer with the city report rather than with anecdotes.

How did citywide hotel tax receipts move in the first quarter of FY26?

The City of Dana Point reports that Transient Occupancy Tax receipts were $5.9 million through September 30, 2025, a decrease of $212,500 (3.5%) from the same period in FY25.^[1] The city attributes the decline to ongoing renovations at the Ritz-Carlton, offset partly by other hotels improving.^[1] The city names the Ritz-Carlton in that sentence, and this page repeats the city's wording without placing the property inside Monarch Beach.

No hotel tax rate is quoted here because none is sourced for this page.

Why it matters: if a deal depends on visitor demand, ask for several quarters of the city report, not one, and ask the resort operator which parts of the property are open during any renovation phase.

What do the combined submarket office and industrial numbers say?

Kidder Mathews reports office and industrial statistics for a combined Dana Point/San Juan/San Clemente submarket in its 3Q 2026 Orange County reports. It does not report Monarch Beach separately, and a combined submarket spans three places.^[2][3]

The table shows the Kidder Mathews 3Q 2026 figures for that combined submarket. Office asking rent is full service per square foot per month, and industrial asking rent is NNN per square foot per month.

What does Orange County retail data say about a neighborhood shopping center?

Kidder Mathews reports Orange County retail only, with no Monarch Beach or Dana Point cut in the figures used here. For 3Q 2026 it shows Orange County vacancy of 3.3%, an asking rent of $2.77 per square foot per month, a sales price of $546 per square foot and a cap rate of 5.2%.^[4] These are Orange County retail figures.

Monarch Bay Plaza, described by Orange Coast Magazine as a Spanish-style center perched above Pacific Coast Highway, has no sourced size, owner, anchor list or sales history, so none of these county numbers can be mapped onto it.

Why it matters: if you are comparing a shop or restaurant space near the resort with the county average, ask the landlord for the center's own occupancy, rent roll and lease expirations. Ask which geography and which quarter any figure you are quoted describes.

What do Orange County jobs and unemployment suggest for visitor and office demand?

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages shows Orange County total employment of 1,663,154 in March 2026 across 160,601 establishments, an average weekly wage of $1,766 and a 0.6% increase over the year.^[5] Within the private sector, it reports 306,530 jobs in professional and business services at an average weekly wage of $2,157, and 231,011 jobs in leisure and hospitality at an average weekly wage of $765.^[5]

The same release shows 101,493 private financial jobs, 146,025 private manufacturing jobs (down 3.2% over the year) and 249,217 jobs in trade, transportation and utilities.^[5]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports Orange County unemployment of 4.1% in June 2026, 4.2% in July 2026 and a preliminary 4.4% in August 2026.^[6] All of these are Orange County figures, not Monarch Beach figures.

What is the citywide population of the city that includes Monarch Beach?

The U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates put the City of Dana Point at 33,076 people in 2020, 32,485 in 2024 and 32,232 in 2025.^[7] These are Dana Point city figures. Monarch Beach is an area of Dana Point with no Census figure of its own, so do not read the city total as a Monarch Beach population.

These are citywide estimates. If you need demand evidence for a specific parcel, ask what property-level source exists.

Is anything being built or planned in Monarch Beach?

The sources reviewed for this page show two items, and neither is a filed project. In a February 14, 2025 report, the Dana Point Times described revised General Plan Update goals that promote "vibrant, mixed-use development potential in areas such as Monarch Bay Plaza." That is policy language in a long-range plan, and no application for the shopping center was found.^[8]

Separately, the Dana Point Times reported on April 24, 2026 that the San Manuel Investment Authority completed its purchase of the 400-room Waldorf Astoria Monarch Beach resort in October 2025.^[9] That is an ownership change, not a development.

As of October 2026, no filed application or approval for a Monarch Beach commercial project was found. A development tracker will be added when three projects rest on public records. Until then, ask City of Dana Point planning staff whether anything has been filed for a parcel you are weighing.

City plans that govern Monarch Beach

The Dana Point Zoning Code lists "SP91-01 Monarch Beach Resort" as an adopted specific plan, and the entry reads "(Added by Ord. 93-16, 11/23/93)".^[10] The California Coastal Commission lists the Monarch Beach Resort Specific Plan among the documents that make up the city's certified Local Coastal Program.^[11]

The City of Dana Point's adopted FY2026 and FY2027 budget describes the Monarch Beach community as toward the city's northwest edge.^[15]

Ask City planning staff whether SP91-01 covers the parcel you are weighing.

Infrastructure work near Monarch Beach

The sources reviewed show three infrastructure records, each shown below with what its source says.

A State Water Resources Control Board project summary describes "construction of a 1,700 square foot ozone treatment facility" for Salt Creek, in a report dated 2007, and describes a facility "adjacent to the Salt Creek storm drain outlet."^[14] The City of Dana Point's adopted FY2026 and FY2027 budget lists the Salt Creek Ozone Treatment Facility among the structural best management practices whose operation and maintenance its water quality program covers.^[15]

The Monarch Beach Management Plan is covered by California Coastal Commission permit amendment application 5-14-1604-A1, whose applicant is the Monarch Bay Club. A 2021 Commission staff report recommends approval with conditions of an amendment to extend the beach management activities for an additional five years (June 4, 2021 to June 4, 2026), with Special Condition 4 providing a three year extension. The report describes the plan as including "relocation of beach sand to direct discharge from the Salt Creek outflow to the ocean."^[13]

The Monarch Beach Drive and Stonehill recycled water project has one dated record in the sources reviewed: the State Water Resources Control Board approved Clean Water State Revolving Fund financing for it on November 30, 2023, and the notice says the South Coast Water District will be carrying out the project. The notice describes about 5,700 linear feet of 14-inch recycled water distribution pipeline located on Stonehill Drive and Monarch Beach Drive near Sea Canyon Park.^[12]

Why it matters: ask the water district about the pipeline schedule, and ask the Coastal Commission about the status of the Monarch Beach Management Plan permit.

What do the cited sources not report for Monarch Beach?

Several numbers a buyer or tenant might want are not included in the sources reviewed for this page. Each missing number is a question to ask, not a number to guess.

• The cited Kidder Mathews reports do not provide Monarch Beach-specific vacancy, asking rent or absorption figures. They report only the combined Dana Point/San Juan/San Clemente submarket for office and industrial, and Orange County for retail.
• A Dana Point hotel tax rate, or hotel tax receipts split by property or neighborhood. No rate is sourced here, and the city figures cited are citywide totals.
• A Monarch Beach population, household count or employment count; the Census figure is for Dana Point city. The Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics figures above are for Dana Point or Orange County.
• Size, ownership, anchors, occupancy, rents or zoning for Monarch Bay Plaza. Only a magazine description is on file.
• Sales comparables, cap rates or price per square foot for Monarch Beach commercial property are not sourced here. The retail cap rate above is an Orange County figure.
• Any forecast. The numbers above describe past periods, and this page does not predict the next one.

What should you check before relying on any of these numbers?

Start by confirming the geography of each figure: Dana Point (citywide), the combined Dana Point/San Juan/San Clemente submarket, or Orange County. Then ask the City of Dana Point planning staff which rules apply to the specific parcel, including the SP91-01 Monarch Beach Resort specific plan where it covers the land.

Finally, ask the property's own landlord or operator for property-level numbers. If you are weighing a Monarch Beach decision, list your property type, your timeline and the numbers you could not find.